Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Crazy Poker Hand

Last night we were playing with three people at the table. I had small blind (to left of dealer). I got the flat tire (Jack - 4), not a good hand by any means but with only three people at the table it's not bad.
Dealer called, I called, and large blind checked.

The flop: 4 - J - J

I flopped a full house. At this point, I was wondering how I could best cash in on it. So I checked, check, check.
The turn: 6 (I could be wrong on this but it's close enough)
I bid just over the minimum, to appear to be trying to scare them away. Predictable move, yes. Large blind folded, dealer called.
The river: 7
I grimaced a bit, and checked. Dealer bid, I raised, and dealer bid enough to put me all in.
So, as I was counting my chips so he could make his bid, I was thinking about how nice it would be to have twice that many as soon as I show my cards. I was thinking about the odds of things--there was a possibility of a straight or a flush (but not a straight flush) but I knew my hand would beat those.
The chances of him having the last Jack: 2.2%
The chances of him having a 6 or 7: 13.3%
Therefore, the chances of him having a better hand (both a Jack and a 6 or 7): about 0.29%

I called. He flipped his cards: Jack - Four. We had the same damn hand. What are the odds? A little less than 0.1% . . . or 1 in 1000 . . . .

So, we split the chips. Oh well.

1 comment:

  1. I've had hands like that- sometimes in much scarier circumstances where I thought he might have the better hand, but, in one case, us both turning out to have the low straight.... gotta love poker for that stuff.